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I thank Stanley Liebowitz, Stephen Margolis, Melinda Sandler Morrill, Julian Sanchez, Koleman Strumpf, Ale- jandro Zentner, and seminar participants at the 2012 International Industrial Organization Conference for comments; the staff at Nielsen Media & Entertainment (especially Sean Bradley) for assistance with sales data; and the Re- searc h Inno va tion Grant fund for financ ial support. The sales data presen ted in this paper are proprieta ry and were purchased from Nielsen Media & Entertainment under a non-disclosure agreement. It is intuitive that the potential for buyers to obtain a good without remuneration can harm the producer of the good. I test if this holds empirically in the music industry using data from an exclusive file-sharing website that allows users to share music files using the BitTorrent protocol.

These are the most reliable file-sharing data available because they are from a private tracker, which is an invitation-only file-sharing network. The number of downloads is endogenous due to unobserved album quality, leading me to use an instrumental variable approach. In particular, I exploit exogenous variation in the availability of sound recordings in file-sharing networks to isolate the causal effect of file sharing of an album on its sales. The results strongly suggest that an album benefits from incre ased file sharing: an album that became av aila ble in file- shari ng networks one month earlier would sell 60 additional units. This increase is sales is small relative to other factors that hav e b een found to affect album sales. I conclude with an inves tigat ion of the distributional effects of file sharing on sales and find that file sharing benefits more estab lish ed and popular artists but not newer and smal ler artists.

These result s are consiste nt with recent trends in the music industry. Ho w does the existenc e of a black mark et affect outcomes in the form al marke t? The marke t of interest here is recorded music, a market that has featured prominently in the literature on intel- lectual property rights following the rise of file sharing.

Revenues in the music industry fell 10.9% in 2010 to $6.9 billion, continuing a near-decade-long decline in revenue. Si mu l- taneously, unauthorized sharing of sound recordings in file-sharing networks continues to increase, with 1.5 billion file-sharing web searches performed in 2009 (, ). The coincidence of these two phenomena has sparked a growing literature investigating the causal relationship between a sound recordin g’s populari ty in file-s harin g netwo rks and its sales in retail markets. I build on this literature with a paper that focuses on the sales of music albums, as opposed to individual tracks. An album-oriented approach is appropriate given that albums are the main source of music- industry revenue and are an increasing share of the digital market as well ( ). Wh il e song sales play an increasingly important role in the music industry, albums remain the largest source of revenue, comprising 75.4% of total music-industry revenue in 2010 (up from 72.4% in 2008) As a result, album sales should be the focus of the policy discussions that surround the music industry’s legal campaign to protect its intellectual property rights against members of file-sharing networks.